Understanding the bird flu vaccine

There is much confusion about the "bird flu vaccine and whether it really exists or not. Yes, there are some vaccines that are being produced and manufactured that are based on the "bird flu" as it is known today. However, it is clearly and widely agreed that you can't make a vaccine for something that doesn't yet exist.

When the Bird Flu Bug as we'll call it actually decides to take its real form, it will mutate into a virus that is airborne and easily transmitted from human to human.

Most experts and officials agree. Once it (the bird flu) hits and the actual form can be identified, it will take 6 months to develop and produce. If you start producing "vaccines" for a current strain, their is a 80% chance it will have little affect on a virus that arrives 9 months from now.

This can happen in two ways.
1) If a person were infected with a human flu and the bird flu at the same time, the two viruses could swap genes -- reassort -- and a human version of bird flu could emerge. This is what happened in the last two flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968.

2) Bird flu could also evolve into a form adapted to humans, as was the case in the 1918 flu pandemic. There's evidence the H5N1 bird flu virus has begun this process, but scientists say it isn't yet very far along. Nevertheless, a few H5N1 viruses isolated from humans have acquired some key 1918-like mutations.

Who will get the vaccine?

It's expected that about 40% of children and 20% of working adults will get the flu during a pandemic. Overall, about a third of the population is expected to get ill. At least half of infected people are expected to seek medical care.

The government is stockpiling antiviral medicines. How large this stockpile will be depends on how soon a pandemic hits. Eventually, the U.S. hopes to stockpile enough flu drugs to treat 25% of the U.S. population.

The government will deploy its stockpiled bird-flu vaccine, but it's not clear this will be effective. A truly effective vaccine should start to appear about six months after the pandemic begins. It will take two vaccinations, weeks apart, for a person to become protected.

Vaccines will be distributed to people in order of priority, in two tiers, with group A having the highest priority in each tier. This list, from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, does not include the 1.5 million members of the military considered essential to ongoing operations and military medicine.

Tier 1, Group A:

The approximately 40,000 people essential to vaccine manufacture.
Medical workers with direct patient contact

Tier 1, Group B:

People with two medical conditions that put them at high risk of flu complications
People with a past history of flu hospitalization

Tier 1, Group C:

Pregnant women
Household contacts of people with immune-system problems (such as transplants or AIDS) that prevent them from being vaccinated
Household contacts of children under 6 months of age

Tier 1, Group D:

Emergency response workers critical to pandemic response
Key government leaders

Tier 2, Group A:

Healthy people aged 65 and older
People aged 6 months to 64 years with one medical condition that puts them at high risk of flu complications
Healthy children aged 6 to 23 months

Tier 2, Group B:

Emergency responders not critical to pandemic response
Public safety workers (firefighters, police, 911 dispatchers, correctional facility staff)
Utility workers essential for maintaining power, water, and sewage systems
Transportation workers transporting fuel, water, food, and medical supplies
Transportation workers providing public ground transportation
Telecommunications and internet technology workers essential for network operation and maintenance

Tier 3:

Other key government health decision-makers
Funeral directors and embalmers

Tier 4:

Healthy people aged 2 to 64 years not included in the above categories