Mortality rates
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It is widely agreed that the numbers can only be a guess. However, when the
guess is between 1 million and 50 million dead in the US, it really doesn't
matter. Those are still huge numbers. Especially when you consider that death
toll taking place in a period of 6 - 12 weeks.
You will notice that this cycle lasted about 5 weeks. We would like you to
keep in mind that we believe their will be another 8 weeks following this cycle
that will be a "frozen period". People will still be advised to stay home and
not interact. It is also known that it comes in "waves".
The estimated death toll in 1918 was around 40 million.
Bird flu 'has pandemic potential'
By Michelle Roberts
The bird flu virus could mutate to pass from human to human and trigger a
pandemic, latest evidence suggests, according to scientists. Outbreaks
so far have been through the flu spreading from animals to humans. But Nancy
Cox, of the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention, says a number of
subtypes have proven their ability to jump the species barrier. The H5N1
strain, which has killed 42 people in Asia since 1997, was one of many
possible candidates, she said.
Mutant strains Strains had emerged in the last year that were
more lethal to animals than the 1997 strain, she said.
The recent spurt of human infections increases the likelihood that a
mutant strain would arise that could spread between humans, she added.
We could have a relatively severe pandemic as occurred in 1918 or
perhaps even worse
"It's impossible to predict what the consequences would be. We might have a
relatively mild pandemic like we did in 1968," Dr Cox told the annual
meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
"Alternatively, we could have a relatively severe pandemic as occurred in
1918 or perhaps even worse." The virus could mutate by shuffling genetic
material with the human flu virus, Dr Cox added. This would make it better
at specifically targeting human airways for attack.
Killer rate During the last century there have been three serious
flu outbreaks. The first in 1918, dubbed the Spanish flu, killed up to 50
million across the world. Asian flu hit in 1957, followed by Hong Kong flu
in 1968, which claimed one million victims each. Although H5N1 has only
killed 42 people so far in comparison, its death to infection rate is 76%.
"It is very frightening to see such a high case fatality rate," said Dr
Cox, but she said it might be that less serious or ambiguous cases had not
been picked up, which would mean the real rate could be lower than this. A
study published in this week's New England Journal of Medicine supports this
notion. The Vietnamese authors report a case of a four-year-old boy who had
diarrhea and seizures rather than respiratory symptoms before going into a
coma and dying from the H5N1 virus.
Dr Cox said it was important to keep a handle on what the virus was doing
and for countries to prepare for a pandemic by stockpiling antiviral drugs.
If you are seeking a great plan for the bird flu and information on
preparing we encourage you to visit
TheRealBirdFluPlan . It is the best
plan we have found and is the most affordable. We have reviewed many.
Below is an old graph showing the massive mortality due to the influenza
epidemic in October of 1918 in Kansas. This is representative of what happened
in every state in the nation.